State governments will get more predictable baseline highway funding because apportionment shares are anchored to 2012 allocations, reducing sudden year-to-year losses.

States that currently pay more into the Highway Trust Fund (higher fuel-tax contributors) will be protected from steep cuts because no State will receive less than 95% of a share tied to recent HTF tax contributions.

State and local transportation planners gain timing certainty because apportionments are made on a fixed annual date (October 1), improving budgeting and project scheduling.

Residents of fast-growing States and their local governments may receive less funding than under a modern population- or needs-based formula, limiting road and transit improvements where growth has increased demand.

Lower fuel-consumption States and many rural communities could be disadvantaged because tying minimums to recent HTF tax payments favors high fuel-use/wealthier States and can entrench funding disparities.

Urban transit riders and communities needing climate resilience may lose out because using 2012 distribution weights locks in outdated patterns and reduces flexibility to shift funds toward transit, multimodal projects, or climate adaptation.

States facing emergent transportation crises and federal policymakers will have less flexibility because guaranteeing near-minimum shares (95% floor) could constrain the federal government's ability to reallocate limited funds to urgent national priorities.