Sponsors (4)
The bill lets local agencies use growth- and planning-based ridership forecasts to make transit projects more competitive and better aligned with development goals, but increases the risk of optimistic projections, potential geographic inequities, and administrative variability for grant reviewers.
Local transit agencies (urban and rural) can use forecasts that account for population growth and local development plans, producing ridership estimates that better reflect planned growth and future demand.
Projects that incorporate anticipated growth or planning may be more competitive for fixed-guideway capital grants, helping accelerate transit improvements and potential economic activity (benefiting riders, local businesses, and local governments).
Allowing planning-based forecasts can better align federal grant decisions with local land-use and development goals, supporting coordinated transportation and development outcomes.
Taxpayers and local governments face higher risk that optimistic growth- and planning-based forecasts will lead to funding projects that underperform in actual ridership, wasting public funds.
Communities with aggressive development proposals could be advantaged in grant competitions, disadvantaging slower-growth or rural communities and raising equity concerns.
Permitting multiple forecasting methods may increase administrative burden and create variability for federal grant reviewers, complicating comparisons and oversight.
Based on analysis of 2 sections of legislative text.
Permits ridership forecasts for fixed guideway capital grants to account for population density, population growth rate, and MAP-21 development planning activities.
Allows grant applicants for fixed guideway capital investment grants to use ridership-forecasting methods that explicitly consider population density, population growth rate, and local development planning activities (as defined in MAP-21). The change updates the statutory language governing required forecasting content to permit these factors in forecasts submitted to the Federal Transit Administration. The amendment is a narrow technical change to 49 U.S.C. §5309 focused on how ridership forecasts are prepared and evaluated for certain transit capital grants. It affects transit agencies, planners, and state and local governments involved in project planning and grant applications.
Official title: To amend title 49, United States Code, to include certain ridership forecasting methods in determinations of whether a project under the fixed guideway capital investment grants program is justified, and for other purposes.
Introduced July 23, 2026 by Burgess Owens · Last progress July 23, 2026