Sponsors (2)
The bill gives transit agencies more forecasting flexibility to better align grants with local growth — potentially directing funds to projects that match future demand — but increases the risk of optimistic projections misallocating federal dollars and raises planning costs for recipients.
State and local transit agencies can use broader, locally relevant ridership factors (e.g., population density, growth rate, planned development) when forecasting, improving the accuracy of grant applications and project planning.
Communities with strong projected growth or planned development (especially urban areas) are more likely to receive favorable capital grant consideration, helping fund transit projects that match future demand.
Taxpayers and local governments face a greater risk that agencies will use optimistic forecasting assumptions, which could misallocate federal grant funds to projects with overstated ridership.
State and local agencies may incur higher planning and administrative costs because they must justify additional discretionary forecasting factors and potentially update methodologies.
Based on analysis of 2 sections of legislative text.
Broadens allowable ridership forecasting factors for fixed-guideway capital grants to include population density or growth, corridor ridership, and MAP–21 planning activities.
Official title: Amend title 49, United States Code, to include certain ridership forecasting methods in determinations of whether a project under the fixed guideway capital investment grants program is justified, and for other purposes.
Introduced July 23, 2026 by John R. Curtis · Last progress July 23, 2026
Modifies federal transit grant rules to broaden which factors recipients may use when forecasting ridership for fixed-guideway capital investment grants. It explicitly allows forecasts to account for population density, population growth rate, current corridor ridership, and related development planning activities, and adds a cross-reference to metropolitan planning provisions in 49 U.S.C. 5303.