Sponsors (6)
Introduced July 7, 2025 by Jay Obernolte · Last progress July 7, 2025
The bill funds targeted improvements in subseasonal-to-seasonal and atmospheric-river forecasting that can materially reduce flood, landslide, and water-management risks—especially in the West—but requires multi-year federal spending, is time-limited and regionally focused, and could shift benefits toward certain private partners while raising data-sharing and continuity concerns.
Emergency managers, local governments, and residents (especially in the Western U.S.) get earlier, more accurate forecasts and warnings for atmospheric rivers, extreme precipitation, snow, floods, and landslides, reducing risk to life and property.
Western water managers, utilities, and agricultural stakeholders receive improved subseasonal-to-seasonal precipitation forecasts to support reservoir operations, water allocation, and drought/flood risk planning, yielding economic and infrastructure resilience benefits.
NOAA, universities, and researchers get increased support for mountain and atmospheric-river modeling, expanded observations (aircraft, satellite, ocean), and testbeds that accelerate research-to-operations and adoption of AI/ML—raising forecast accuracy and producing operational tools for forecasters and the public.
Taxpayers face increased federal costs (including a specified $15 million/year for five years plus additional expenses for high-resolution models, aircraft operations, and expanded observations), which could divert NOAA resources or require new appropriations.
The program authority sunsets after five years, risking loss of continuity and making it harder to sustain long-term forecasting improvements and partnerships.
Focusing the pilot on the western U.S. may leave other regions without similar subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting improvements, creating unequal geographic benefits and resilience gaps.
Based on analysis of 3 sections of legislative text.
Establishes NOAA S2S pilots and an Atmospheric Rivers Forecast Improvement Program to improve forecasts for western U.S. water management, authorizing $15M/year FY2026–FY2030 for the pilot.
Creates a NOAA program and a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting pilot to improve forecasts of atmospheric rivers and precipitation for western U.S. water management. The measure directs NOAA to develop improved models, observations, data assimilation, AI/ML tools, and operational transition paths, requires coordination with academic institutions and Air Force weather reconnaissance, and authorizes $15 million per year for FY2026–FY2030 for the pilot, with a five-year sunset on that authority. Requires NOAA to deliver a publicly released program plan within 270 days, set forecast-skill metrics, and submit annual budgets aligned to the plan; activities include developing unified modeling systems (seasonal to short-range), advancing S2S prediction, expanding observations and data stewardship, and improving hazard communication and operational testbeds.