Sponsors (6)
Official title: To accelerate subseasonal to seasonal prediction skills related to precipitation forecasts for water management in the western United States, improve atmospheric river forecasts across the country, and for other purposes.
Introduced July 7, 2025 by Jay Obernolte · Last progress July 7, 2025
The bill funds and accelerates improved subseasonal-to-seasonal and atmospheric-river forecasting—likely reducing deaths and property damage and strengthening water and forecasting capabilities—while increasing federal spending, concentrating benefits regionally and commercially, and risking interrupted continuity after a five-year sunset.
Residents, emergency managers, and local/state governments in flood- and landslide-prone areas get earlier and more accurate forecasts for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation, enabling earlier evacuations and reducing loss of life and property damage.
Western water managers and reservoir operators receive improved subseasonal-to-seasonal precipitation forecasts to make better reservoir operations and water allocation decisions, helping water supply reliability for communities and utilities.
NOAA and partners accelerate research-to-operations (testbeds) and implement S2S recommendations, making operational forecast systems more reliable and delivering usable forecast tools to forecasters and the public.
The program increases federal costs and taxpayer burden — including a specified $15 million per year for five years plus added expenses for high-resolution models, aircraft operations, and expanded observations — which could divert NOAA resources or require new appropriations.
The five-year authorization with a sunset risks interrupting long-term continuity of forecasting improvements and sustained program development if not renewed.
Focusing the pilot and many program activities on the western U.S. may leave other regions without similar subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting improvements, producing uneven benefits nationwide.
Based on analysis of 3 sections of legislative text.
Authorizes NOAA S2S pilot projects and creates an Atmospheric Rivers Forecast Improvement Program, with $15M/year for FY2026–FY2030 for the pilot and required program planning and coordination.
Creates a NOAA-led program and a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting pilot to improve forecasts, observations, modeling, and communication of atmospheric rivers affecting the western United States. It authorizes NOAA to spend $15 million per year (FY2026–FY2030) for the S2S pilot, requires a program plan and annual budget for an Atmospheric Rivers Forecast Improvement Program, and directs coordination with universities, NOAA centers, the National Weather Service, and Air Force weather reconnaissance units. The law focuses on improving forecast skill from subseasonal to seasonal timescales, enhancing observations (including aircraft reconnaissance), advancing coupled modeling and hydrology/snow integration, applying AI/ML and data assimilation, and accelerating transitions of research to operations to reduce life, property, and economic losses from atmospheric rivers.