Sponsors (6)
The bill would materially improve forecasts, warnings, and forecast-related research and workforce capacity—especially in the western U.S.—but does so with modest multi-year federal funding, potential recurring costs, a limited geographic pilot and a sunset that could hinder long-term continuity, and some data-governance risks.
At-risk communities, emergency managers, utilities, and state/local governments will get more actionable, probabilistic forecasts and warnings (including for subseasonal-to-seasonal precipitation and atmospheric rivers), improving preparedness, reservoir and flood operations, and reducing loss of life and property.
Scientists, universities, and NOAA will receive sustained research support and partnerships (including $15M/year FY2026–2030 and AI/ML collaboration) that accelerate innovation, transition of tools to operations, and workforce training.
Investments in observations (reconnaissance aircraft), ocean and satellite data will improve forecast accuracy across time scales, strengthening situational awareness for weather and water risks.
Taxpayers and the federal budget will face increased costs (including the authorized $75M over five years, expanded reconnaissance and observational programs, and recurring IT/modeling maintenance), which could crowd out other priorities and require ongoing funding.
The program sunsets after five years, risking loss of continuity and requiring reauthorization to sustain operational gains and partnerships.
Pilot focus on the western U.S. means other regions may not directly benefit from subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast improvements, leaving some rural and other communities with lesser near-term gains.
Based on analysis of 3 sections of legislative text.
Establishes a NOAA atmospheric river forecast improvement program and an S2S pilot to improve western U.S. precipitation forecasts, authorizing $15M/year for the pilot through FY2030.
Creates a new NOAA program to improve forecasting and warnings for atmospheric rivers and requires at least one subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) pilot to improve precipitation forecasts for western U.S. water management. The bill funds and directs research, observations, reconnaissance, modeling, data assimilation, AI/ML methods, and communications work, requires a public program plan within 270 days, and authorizes $15 million per year for the S2S pilot (FY2026–FY2030) with a five-year sunset for that pilot authority.
Introduced July 7, 2025 by Jay Obernolte · Last progress July 7, 2025